Hey, coming at this from a slightly boring-but-practical angle… I cooked my old X‑T20’s shutter on a long trip because I “treated myself” to an upgrade and never really checked the old body’s health first.

If you’re eyeing an X‑T30 III for BF 2025, I’d honestly plan for **maintenance + service** as part of the budget/strategy, not just the discount:

- Before you sell or trade the X‑T20, **check shutter count, sensor dust, and sticky dials**. Might want to consider a pro sensor clean + basic checkup now, so you can sell it for more when the X‑T30 III deals hit.
- When you buy, keep the receipt and **register the camera with Fuji immediately**. Be careful with gray‑market “too good” deals; you really want that official warranty if something fails in the first year.
- I’d suggest putting aside like **$50–$100 of your BF budget for a future sensor clean** and maybe a spare official battery. Cheaper 3rd‑party stuff can be fine, but I’ve seen bloated knockoff batteries jam battery doors.

Lesson learned for me: chasing the lowest price was fun, but having a **well‑maintained old body to sell and a properly registered new one** actually saved me more money long term than an extra $50 off on Black Friday.

Hey, chiming in with a slightly different angle: **where you live and shoot actually matters a lot** for how you play Black Friday and what kit you grab.

**Background:** I’m in a pretty humid, hot climate (SE Asia) but travel a lot to cold / wet places in winter. I’ve bought Fuji bodies and lenses on Black Friday in both the US and EU, and the patterns aren’t identical.

**Why it matters:**
- In colder / wetter regions (UK, Northern Europe, parts of Canada), the **18–55mm** kit tends to be the smarter buy IMO. It’s just better built, nicer to handle with gloves, and deals often bundle it at a very good effective discount.
- In hotter / dusty / humid places, I’ve seen more value in **body‑only Black Friday deals + used local lenses**. Dealers sometimes discount bodies more aggressively because people already own lenses or buy used to save cash.
- Also, season timing: in places where Black Friday is less of a thing (e.g. some EU countries), **Christmas / January clearance** has been as good or better than BF for Fuji.

**Practical takeaways for you:**
- If you’re in the US/UK: I’d *expect* something like **$150–$250 off body-only**, and maybe a **sharper value jump on the 18–55 kit** (often ends up ~$300–$350 extra vs body, which is solid for that lens).
- If you’re in a smaller market / non‑US: keep an eye on **local weather + travel season**. Sometimes Fujifilm promos line up with tourist season rather than BF; I’ve grabbed better Fuji deals in late Jan than on Black Friday.
- For travel/street in mixed climates, I’d aim for: **X‑T30 III + 18–55 as a kit if it hits your $1–1.2k ceiling**, then add more glass later. The 18–55 is just a really practical travel zoom, especially if you get rained on a lot and don’t wanna swap primes constantly.

Personally, I’d wait for one of two things: a **BF kit deal that hits your budget**, or a **random mid‑year promo at a local authorized dealer** that’s within ~$100 of what you expect on BF. If it gets that close, I’d just buy early and enjoy it on your trips instead of waiting another season.

Hope this helps! Curious where you’re based, because that could change which route makes the most sense.

Hey, I’ll throw in a slightly different angle: the “eco / long‑term impact” side of this.

If you’re already on an X‑T20 with those primes, the **most environmentally friendly and cost‑effective move** is usually: buy once, buy right, and keep it for years. So in your shoes, I’d honestly aim to:

1. **Wait for a solid X‑T30 III deal, but not obsess over the absolute lowest Black Friday price.**
– If you save an extra $70 by waiting 6 more months, but lose a ton of shooting time (or end up buying/selling gear twice), that’s more shipping, more packaging, more transport… and just more waste.

2. **Prioritize a kit you’ll keep long‑term.**
– If the 18–55 is what you *actually* want, it’s better (for wallet and planet) to grab a good kit promo once than to buy body‑only now, then add/sell lenses later.
– Historically the 18–55 kits do get decent BF promos, often in that ~$200 off body or kit range, and the 18–55 is a lens you can happily keep for ages.

3. **Stick to one upgrade cycle.**
– I think the greenest option is: X‑T20 → X‑T30 III, then ride that combo for 5–7+ years. Skipping the X‑S10/X‑T30 II “in between” bodies is already a fantastic environmental (and financial) win.

So yeah, I’d watch Black Friday 2025, but set a simple rule: if a legit dealer has an X‑T30 III + 18–55 kit within your $1–1.2k window at any point (not just BF), that’s a great time to pull the trigger and then stop upgrading for a good while. Fewer shipments, fewer boxes, less churn, and you still get that amazing AF/sensor bump.

Hope this helps!